The Democrats in this country have the best chance of winning the White House in more than three generations. For them, it is the surest election since 1944; sixty-four years. Granted, they have won elections between then and now, but not since Franklin Roosevelt threw his hat into the ring for a fourth term has a Democratic victory been such a sure thing.
And they're going to screw it up.
Let's face facts, George W. Bush is a failed President. He has done little for this country, short of get us into a war so expensive it is immeasurably increasing our national debt, dragging down the price of our currency, throwing our economy into a tailspin and making his friends in the oil companies rich beyond their wildest dreams. His popularity is about the lowest any President's has ever been. He may very well be worse than Warren Harding -- an administration that defined incompetence. Anyone even remotely connected with Bush -- like being a member of his party -- stands no chance of winning election.
On top of that, the country leans Democratic in the first place. I firmly believe that if every person who was eligible to vote actually did, Democrats would win every time. How can I be so sure? Well, for starters, we always hear high voter turnout tends to help Democrats. That tells me people who are eligible to vote, but, for one reason or another don't, must be more likely to vote Democrat. It is also telling that, the final national polls prior to a general election tend to give Democrats a six to eight percentage point swing, as compared to the actual results. I think people who are eligible, but unlikely, to vote still want their opinions heard, so when they answer the first question -- whether they will vote or not - they say "yes." But since they don't actually intend to vote, what they say skews the final results.
Back to the point: The Democrats should ride into a landslide victory on Election Day on a wave of anti-Bush sentiment. At least, that's what I said a year ago. Now, I'm not so sure. Because, now, it appears there isn't a Democrat capable of winning. That's right, in an election where the Democrats could have nominated a three-toed sloth (as long as it was born in America) and still won the White House, it looks like they just may lose in November.
Having watched politics pretty much my entire life, I have concluded Republicans have simply figured out how to win Presidential elections. Granted, they don't win all of them, but the fact that they win some is surprising. And, yet, Republicans have won nearly two-thirds of the Presidential Elections since World War Two, and three-fourths since the Era of the Hippie, when, based on news coverage and media bias, one would think the Democrats would be in charge all the time.
So what's the difference? Simple. Republicans tend to nominate candidates that have the best chance of winning, then get behind that candidate. Democrats, on the other hand, nominate based on whichever candidate most fulfills their politically-correct ideal of who should be President. Then when that candidate tries to move to the center of the political spectrum to appeal to a broader voter base, those actually in the center don't buy it, and the party's liberal core feel abandoned, so they look to someone else. By contrast, the Republicans seems to very effectively move to the center.
The 2000 election is a prime example. Al Gore was nominated by the Democrats solely for his reputation in the field of Global Warming. When he then tried to take a moderate stance to appeal to centrist voters, he alienated the extreme left wing of the party, who flocked to Ralph Nadar. George Bush, on the other hand, won the nomination because he is an extreme conservative, then won the election by pretending to be a moderate. 2004 was similar. The fact is, the only reason Bush was able to win either election is because the Democratic candidates were that bad.
(And don't talk to me about "cheating," "voter fraud," and "stolen elections." Every party involved has cheated in virtually every major election ever held. If Bush won by cheating in 2000, it was only because he cheated more effectively than Gore did. It all balances out in the end. Get over it.)
This year, in an election in which the Democratic candidate shouldn't matter in the final result, it appears Clinton and Obama are spending so much time sniping about who better represents the Democratic faithful, they are convincing centrist voters neither of them are right. And why? Why doesn't Hillary just step down gracefully and let Obama continue? She certainly agrees that a Democrat would be better than McCain, no matter who that Democrat is, doesn't she?
Well, frankly, no. I don't think she cares who is President, if it isn't her. She wants not just to be President, but to be the first woman President so badly, she is willing to do absolutely anything to make it happen. I think she had concluded (right or wrong) that this is her one and only shot at being the first woman President, and she is desperate to make it happen. And I further believe that, if this is not her year, she thinks she has an outside chance in four years, but only if McCain wins the general election. In other words, I think there is a strong possibility that, assuming Obama wins the nomination, she will actually try to sabotage his election, giving her one final chance four years from now, if McCain turns out to be a failure.
Isn't politics fun?